A recent article from popular Amazon podcast Seller Sessions dives deep into the patents behind Amazon’s A9 algorithm. Additionally, it introduces readers to the “Cold Start” system, which debunks the previously assumed “Honeymoon Period” theory. We love a good myth debunked, and our SEO team was all about learning more - and providing their own insight!

As competition increases each day on Amazon, standing out comes down to adhering to foundational best practices, making Amazon SEO and their organic algorithm more important than ever. Deeply understanding all that goes into that is critical for brands, especially when it comes to listing new products.

We’re breaking down the article, what it means for brands, and what they need to begin doing right now to stay competitive in Amazon’s ever-evolving ecosystem.

Debunking the 30-Day Honeymoon Period Myth

The biggest news from the release of the Cold Start Patents: the common belief that new products automatically receive increased visibility for the first 30 days on Amazon — the so-called "honeymoon period" — is only partially true. While there might be a short period where a product sees a boost, Amazon’s system is much more complex. In reality, new products are evaluated based on product attributes filled out on the NIS (new item setup) form and are then compared with similar products to help Amazon’s ranking algorithm create “prior prediction values” that estimate a product’s potential performance.

The Role of Product Attributes in Initial Placement

When a new product is added to Amazon’s catalog, the platform assesses its NIS attributes to predict its initial placement in the search results. Ensuring that all relevant details are included in the NIS forms is crucial for optimal placement. These forms guide Amazon in understanding a product’s position in the marketplace and estimating how it should rank. Often thought of as a final, quick and easy step to get a product live, a detailed, thorough and accurate NIS has proven to be more critical than ever.

Leveraging Advanced Tools Like COSMO for Seasonal Trends

And now the AI of it all. Amazon’s COSMO AI tool adds depth to its algorithm by factoring in commonsense context, consumer intent and semantic similarity in search queries. COSMO helps Amazon better align search results with seasonal consumer behaviors, enhancing product visibility during peak periods. Brands must now think beyond search volume and grasp a full understanding of all the ways customers behave with their catalog, and optimize with keywords accordingly, both in the backend and frontend.

Real-Time Adjustments with Posterior Estimation

As many marketers know, Amazon’s algorithm evolves as products begin to gain traction. Starting as soon as five days after a product is purchasable, Amazon incorporates posterior estimation values, which adjust the system’s initial predictions of a product, based on real-time performance data. This continuous update refines the product’s visibility based on new sales and engagement data.

On the contrary, if a product does not engage users, its ranking will decrease to reflect its actual relevance rather than benefiting from any initial time-based boost. There is a ninety-day claim window that a product needs to become purchasable. If a product does not sell within that window, it will be automatically deemed ineligible for the cold start mechanism and transitions to evaluation by a behavioral machine learning model.

Importance of Thorough New Item Setup (NIS) Forms

Completing NIS forms thoroughly is essential for setting up a product for success. While it may be tempting to expedite the process, investing time in a comprehensive setup ensures that Amazon receives all the necessary information to accurately assess and rank the product. The NIS forms are typically one of the last steps of product development, but early product entries into Amazon’s system, even if the product is not immediately discoverable, can set the stage for a smoother launch. Using the release date attribute allows brands to input and optimize product details well ahead of time, giving Amazon time to evaluate attributes and prepare for launch.

Best Practices

The transition from prior prediction values to posterior is a critical one, as is the foundational best practices to launching a new product. We’re outlining several tips and best practices that can assist brands in better optimizing their new product setup - it’s worth a bookmark for your next product launch.

As mentioned earlier, Amazon’s ranking system initially uses machine learning models to predict the likely success of new products, leveraging data from similar items to provide early visibility. These "prior predictions" give new products a chance to appear in search results before they’ve collected their own interaction data. As users engage with the product through clicks, views, and purchases, the system transitions to "posterior predictions," adjusting rankings based on real user data. This ensures rankings reflect actual performance, not just early estimations, and continuously fine-tunes positioning.

To optimize visibility, new products benefit from drawing relevant, engaged traffic, as this interaction data is critical for faster ranking adjustments. Early advertising efforts can help drive this traffic and expedite the transition from estimated to real performance-based rankings. Amazon’s system continually updates rankings, aligning with real-time user engagement. Therefore, an effective launch strategy involves a well-optimized product listing and targeted ads to build sustained visibility and support long-term success in search results - organic and paid.

Ensuring Category Accuracy

Accurately placing products in the correct category is fundamental. Misclassifying a product can skew a product’s prior predictions and in effect, cloud its visibility. Verify that the category aligns with similar high-performing products to maximize initial placement potential.

Analyzing High-Performing Competitors

Examining top-performing PDPs in your category can provide valuable insights into successful formatting and content strategies. Brands should take note of the product attributes and details that consistently yield high visibility and engagement, and incorporate these elements into their own launches.

Avoid Suppressions

To ensure your new items do not get suppressed after they launch, it’s essential to monitor their status and performance closely. Regularly check that your listings are complete, with all required attributes and high-quality content, as any missing information or errors can lead to suppressed listings. This means optimizing titles, descriptions, images, and keywords to attract early interactions that reinforce relevance in Amazon’s algorithm. Engage in early advertising and drive targeted traffic to keep the product active, as consistent engagement signals are key to maintaining visibility. Promptly addressing any listing errors or performance warnings helps avoid suppression, allowing your product to remain eligible for ranking adjustments during the critical early stages.

Have Inventory Ready to Go

Having inventory ready within 90 days of launch is crucial for maintaining momentum and meeting the algorithm's requirements. Without adequate stock, a listing may become unavailable, disrupting the accumulation of engagement data and potentially resulting in a drop in ranking.

To avoid this, ensure that inventory levels are aligned with expected demand, particularly if early advertising is part of your strategy. Plan for replenishment to cover the full claim period, and consider using Amazon’s inventory forecasting tools to manage stock efficiently. Consistent availability within the first 90 days keeps the product eligible for cold start adjustments, allowing it to build a solid foundation for long-term ranking stability.

A Comprehensive Approach to Launch Success

Launching a product on Amazon involves more than simply uploading details and waiting for success. By understanding the nuances of Amazon’s algorithm — from prior prediction values to posterior estimations and leveraging AI tools like COSMO — brands can optimize their product’s visibility and performance. Early preparation, comprehensive NIS forms, strategic analysis of competitors, and a buttoned up inventory plan are the keys to a successful product launch.

Investing in thorough setup and proactive planning ensures that both Amazon’s algorithm and potential customers have all the information needed to drive a product’s success.

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